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Economic Forecast : Spring 2008

Campo	Valor
Formato	Analítico de periódico ou monográfico
N.º Sistema	000040613
Autor	European Union. European Commission. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Título	Economic Forecast : Spring 2008 / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Texto Integral	Versão digital [2,21MB] [Link permanente]
Língua	inglês
País	União Europeia
Local	Brussels
Editor	Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
Ano	2008
Colecção	European Economy. ISSN 0379-0991 ; 1/2008
	European Economy . economic forecasts = previsões económicas
Tipo de Documento	Fascículo Documento eletrónico
Resumo	EU growth slower but resilient Chart 1- Economic growth (click on the image to enlarge) The Commission’s spring economic forecast projects economic growth to ease significantly over the forecast horizon, decelerating from 2.8% in the EU in 2007 to 2.0% in 2008 and 1.8% in 2009. In the euro area, economic growth is forecast to slow down from 2.6% in 2007 to 1.7% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009. The growth forecast for both areas and in both years are now ½ pp. lower than six months ago. The moderation in growth should be seen in the context of the marked slowdown in global activity, with the United States on the brink of a recession, the turmoil in the financial markets persisting and commodity prices soaring. The EU economy holds up relatively well due to sound fundamentals. It cannot, however, escape the global shocks unaffected. Inflation up sharply in 2008 Chart 2 - Inflation (click on the image to enlarge) Following rapid increases in food and energy prices, consumer price inflation is expected to rise temporarily from 2.4% in 2007 to 3.6% this year, before coming down to 2.4% in 2009 (2.1%, 3.2% and 2.2%, respectively, in the euro area). Labour market and public finances cannot escape unscathed Chart 3 - Labour market developments (click on the image to enlarge) The labour market is also set to soften, but 3 million new jobs are still expected to be created in 2008-2009 on top of the 7½ million already created in 2006-2007. The unemployment rate should bottom out at 6.8% in the EU this year (7.2% in the euro area).
	Following several years of fiscal consolidation, the public deficit is projected to deteriorate somewhat over the forecast period. The overall deficit for 2008 is forecast to increase to 1.2% of GDP in the EU and 1.0% in the euro area. For 2009, based on a no-policy-change assumption, the deficit should broadly stabilise. In structural terms, the fiscal consolidation is also projected to come to a halt in 2008. Downside risks prevail Chart 4 - Balance of risks to forecast (click on the image to enlarge) Overall, risks are more balanced than in the autumn 2007 forecast. Nonetheless, the balance of risks for the growth outlook continues to be tilted to the downside, especially for 2009, while the risks for inflation are somewhat on the upside. The major downside risks relate to the still ongoing turmoil in the financial markets which may reinforce the US downturn further.
	CONTENTS Overview Chapter 1: Current international developments and prospects 1. Clouds are gathering over the global economy Chapter 2: The economies of the euro area and the EU 1. Resilient growth so far in the face of headwinds 2. Unfolding financial crisis poses risks 3. Financial turmoil and high commodity prices reduce EU growth 4. Labour markets still solid, softening ahead 5. Inflation to surge temporarily 6. A slight deterioration in the budgetary outlook for 2008 7. Risks to the forecast Chapter 3: Member States 1. Belgium: Domestic demand under pressure 2. Bulgaria: Robust growth despite large imbalances 3. The Czech Republic: Decelerating growth with rising inflation 4. Denmark: Cooling down after a period of sustained growth 5. Germany: Activity proving resilient to adverse external influences 6. Estonia: Marked slowdown 7. Ireland: Housing market adjustment tames Celtic tiger 8. Greece: Wider external imbalances in a context of decelerating Growth 9. Spain: The housing sector contracts, external imbalances persist 10. France: Lacklustre growth and higher budget deficits ahead 11. Italy: Marked slowdown underway 12. Cyprus: Buoyant activity, widening external imbalance 13. Latvia: Economy undergoing a marked adjustment 14. Lithuania: Onto a deceleration path 15. Luxembourg: Slower but sustained growth 16. Hungary: External conditions burden the recovery 17. Malta: Domestic demand continues to feed growth 18. The Netherlands: Strong labour market performance despite economic slowdown 19. Austria: Growth moderating due to weakening external environment 20. Poland: Resilient growth, but inflation noticeably higher 21. Portugal: External developments and structural fragilities weigh on recovery
	22. Romania: Growing macro-financial vulnerabilities 23. Slovenia: Inflation peaks and decelerates as GDP growth moderates 24. Slovakia: Slower growth with moderately higher inflation 25. Finland: An orderly growth slowdown 26. Sweden: Slower growth but public finances firmly in surplus 27. The United Kingdom: Economic slowdown strains public finances Chapter 4: Candidate Countries 1. Croatia: Consumption growth moderates, but investments remain robust 2. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Increased uncertainty impairs economic consolidation 3. Turkey: Weaker growth and stronger price pressures Chapter 5: Other non-EU Countries 1. The United States of America: Consumer retrenchment leads to protracted slowdown 2. Japan: The economy entering a new soft patch 3. China: Export deceleration expected to lower external surplus 128 4. EFTA: Economic growth remains robust 5. Russian Federation: Growth accelerates, amid changes in the external accounts
	Statistical Annex LIST OF TABLES 1. Main features of the Spring 2008 forecast - EU27 2. Main features of the Spring 2008 forecast - euro area 1.1.1. International environment 2.1.1. Composition of growth in 2007 - euro area 2.3.1. Composition of growth - EU27 2.3.2. Composition of growth - euro area 2.4.1. Labour market outlook - euro area and EU27 2.5.1. Inflation outlook - euro area and EU27 2.6.1. General government budgetary position - euro area and EU27 2.6.2. General government structural budget balance 3.1.1. Main features of country forecast - BELGIUM 3.2.1. Main features of country forecast - BULGARIA 3.3.1. Main features of country forecast - THE CZECH REPUBLIC 3.4.1. Main features of country forecast - DENMARK 3.5.1. Main features of country forecast - GERMANY 3.6.1. Main features of country forecast - ESTONIA 3.7.1. Main features of country forecast - IRELAND 3.8.1. Main features of country forecast - GREECE 3.9.1. Main features of country forecast - SPAIN 3.10.1. Main features of country forecast - FRANCE 3.11.1. Main features of country forecast - ITALY 3.12.1. Main features of country forecast - CYPRUS 3.13.1. Main features of country forecast - LATVIA 3.14.1. Main features of country forecast - LITHUANIA 3.15.1. Main features of country forecast - LUXEMBOURG 3.16.1. Main features of country forecast - HUNGARY 3.17.1. Main features of country forecast - MALTA 3.18.1. Main features of country forecast - THE NETHERLANDS 3.19.1. Main features of country forecast - AUSTRIA
Nível de conjunto	Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Economy Nº 1 (2008) 169 p. 0379-0991 PP1606/6
Classif.Temática	1621 estrutura económica eurovoc
Assunto	previsão económica
	crescimento económico
	indicador económico
	análise económica
	economia
	Estado-Membro UE
	estatística
Cota	CIEJD PP1606/6 ISSUE
Ligacao	European economy
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