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Public finances in EMU : 2010
| Campo | Valor |
|---|---|
| Formato | Analítico de periódico ou monográfico |
| N.º Sistema | 000043898 |
| Autor |  European Union. European Commission. Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs |
| Título | Public finances in EMU : 2010 / European Commission. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs |
| Texto Integral | Versão digital [3,26MB] [Link permanente] |
| Língua | inglês |
| País | União Europeia |
| Local | Brussels |
| Editor | Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs |
| Ano | 2010 |
| Colecção | European economy. 4 . Reports and Studies. ISSN 0379-0991 |
| European Economy . Public finances in EMU | |
| Tipo de Documento | Fascículo Documento eletrónico Relatório |
| Resumo | Events in Spring 2010 have exposed the urgency of addressing the fiscal challenge in the euro area and the EU, as the high and rising public debts raised concerns on governments’ solvency. Sovereign risk premia shot up to levels unprecedented in EMU in Member States with perceived high budgetary and macro-financial risks. This year’s edition of the Report on Public Finances reviews how Member States’ fiscal policies have evolved in the wake of the financial and economic crisis. It assesses the prospects for public finances and policy needs ahead. |
| Índice | CONTENTS Summary Part I: Current developments and prospects Summary 1. Budgetary developments in the euro area and the EU Member States 1.1. The slow path to recovery 1.2. Short-term developments and prospects for the budgetary position and public debt 1.3. Government revenue and expenditure 2. Implementing the Stability and Growth Pact 2.1. The Excessive Deficit Procedure 3. Stability and convergence programmes set out the consolidation plans over the medium term 3.1. Macroeconomic scenarios 3.2. Time profile of consolidation 3.3. Composition of consolidation 3.4. Medium term objectives in the 2008-09 and 2009-10 rounds of SCPs 4. The long-term sustainability of public finances 4.1. The approach used to assess the long - term sustainability of public finances 4.2. Overall assessment 5. Current domestic fiscal framework reforms across the EU 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Overview of the information contained in the 2009 2010 SCPs 5.3. Type of measures according to the main elements of domestic frameworks 5.4. The assessment of the domestic fiscal frameworks reforms 5.5. Main conclusions |
| Part II: Evolving budgetary surveillance Summary 1. Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact throughout the crisis 1.1. Fiscal expansion over 2009-2010, conditional on fiscal space 1.2. The SGP and the fiscal exit strategy 1.3. Ongoing implementation of the fiscal exit strategy through the EDP recommendations 2. Statistical treatment of government support to financial institutions 2.1. Accounting issues in the context of the crisis 2.2. The Eurostat decision 2.3. Applying the rules to special cases 3. National fiscal frameworks 3.1. Introduction 3.2. Did domestic fiscal frameworks play a role in previous consolidation episodes? 3.3. Reviewing the main elements of fiscal frameworks: some guidelines 3.4. The strengthening of domestic fiscal frameworks: general considerations 3.5. Is there an ideal model of fiscal frameworks? 3.6. Main conclusions 4. Including implicit liabilities in the medium-term budgetary objectives 4.1. MTOs in the revised SGP 4.2. New MTOs take into account implicit liabilities due to ageing populations 5. Developments in cyclically-adjusted budget balance measurement 5.1. The potential output estimation and the problem of revisions 5.2. The pro-cyclical nature of discretionary measures affecting tax revenues 6. Correcting the cyclically-adjusted budget balance for current account imbalances 6.1. Introduction 6.2. Adjusting the CAB for current account imbalances 6.3. Results 6.4. Conclusion | |
| Part III: Fiscal policy, debt reduction and growth after the crisis Summary 1. Experiences with past episodes of fast debt increase 2. Illustrative projections of debt trends and consolidation needs 2.1. Debt projections up to 2020 2.2. Breakdown of the contributions to the debt projections 2.3. Impact of risk scenarios on medium-term debt developments 3. Output effects of high debt levels 3.1. Transmission explained by theoretical models 3.2. The empirical evidence on debt, growth and interest rates 3.3. The Quest model: output effects of public debt 4. Determinants of successful fiscal consolidations 4.1. Achieving successful fiscal consolidations: what is specific to the current debt increase episode? 4.2. Fiscal consolidation, financial crises and the business cycle: descriptive evidence 4.3. The determinants of successful fiscal consolidations and financial crises: econometric evidence 5. Tax policy and fiscal consolidation 5.1. Introduction 5.2. Tax level and growth 5.3. Tax structure and growth 5.4. Design of individual taxes 6. Simulations of the output effect of fiscal consolidations 7. Case studies 7.1. Finland 7.2. Sweden 7.3. Japan 7.4. Key lessons | |
| Part IV: Fiscal policy and external imbalances Summary 1. External imbalances signaling underlying budgetary imbalances 2. Literature review on the relation between the current account balance and government fiscal balances 3. Macro-financial and (contingent) fiscal risks - an analysis with composite indicators 3.1. Selecting and grouping risk indicators 3.2. Developing composite risk indicators 3.3. Static analysis 3.4. Dynamic analysis of macro-financial and fiscal risk 4. External imbalances and the success of fiscal consolidations 4.1. External imbalances, exchange rate variation and fiscal consolidations: descriptive evidence 4.2. External imbalances, real exchange rates and the success of fiscal consolidations: results from probit estimations 5. Case studies - fiscal policy and external imbalance 5.1. Spain 5.2. Germany 5.3. Ireland 5.4. Estonia 5.5. Concluding remarks Part V: Resources 1. Abbreviations and symbols used 2. Glossary 3. References 4. Useful internet links | |
| III.1.1. The success rate of fiscal consolidations under alternative success criteria III.1.2. The success rate of fiscal consolidations: gradual consolidations vs. cold showers III.2.1. Level and increases in projected age-related expenditure as a share of GDP III.4.1. The success rate of fiscal consolidations and the business cycle: evidence for the EU and non-EU OECD countries 1970-2008 III.4.2. The determinants of successful fiscal consolidations, financial crises and the business cycle III.4.3. The interaction between expenditure-cut/ tax increase-based consolidations and the starting business cycle position: evidence from probit estimations III.6.1. Fiscal multipliers for temporary stimulus III.6.2. Fiscal consolidation: permanent reduction deficit to GDP ratio 1% of GDP III.7.1. Overview of Finnish economy before, during and after the crisis III.7.2. Average annual increases in spending - crisis years and recovery III.7.3. Average annual percentage change in general government expenditure and revenue 1985-1998 III.7.4. Key indicators in Sweden 1986-1998 III.7.5. Contributions to budget consolidation (% of GDP) III.7.6. Overview of the Japanese economy before, during and after the crisis (% of GDP) III.7.7. Fiscal measures introduced on a project cost basis (% of GDP) IV.2.1. Overview of literature on the relation between fiscal policy and the current account balance IV.3.1. List of indicators of budgetary risk, macro-financial risk and budgetary adjustment rigidity IV.4.1. External imbalances and the success of fiscal consolidations: result from probit estimations IV.5.1. Key macroeconomic and budgetary indicators - Spain IV.5.2. Key macroeconomic and budgetary indicators - Germany IV.5.3. Key macroeconomic and budgetary indicators - Ireland IV.5.4. Key macroeconomic and budgetary indicators - Estonia | |
| LIST OF BOXES I.1.1. The EERP and the withdrawal of temporary measures in product and labour markets I.1.2. Rethinking the automatic stabilisers I.1.3. The impact of government interventions supporting financial institutions on public finances I.2.1. The excessive deficit procedure I.2.2. The EU’s response to the crisis in Greece: financial support conditional on implementing a programme of economic adjustment II.1.1. Fiscal exit strategy: principles agreed by the Ecofin Council on 20 October 2009 II.1.2. Establishing a European stabilisation mechanism II.1.3. Balance-of-payments assistance and policy conditionality II.1.4. Reinforcing compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact and deeper fiscal policy coordination: The Commission Communication of 12 May 2010 II.3.1. Key elements in the design of fiscal rules II.3.2. Important elements in the design of independent fiscal institutions II.3.3. Key elements in the design of MTBFs II.3.4. The seven dimensions of the budget process II.4.1. Relevant provisions in the Code of Conduct II.5.1. A joint model for TFP and capacity utilisation II.6.1. Estimating cyclically and absorption-adjusted budget balances III.2.1. Assumptions underlying the medium term projections for gross debt of the general government III.3.1. The effect of deficits and debt on the sovereign risk premium III.6.1. The QUEST III model IV.3.1. Methodology and robustness of composite indicators | |
| Nível de conjunto | European Economy Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Nº 4 (2010) xii, 290 p. 0379-0991 PP1606/6 |
| Classif.Temática | 1611 crescimento económico eurovoc |
| Assunto | recessão económica |
| ciclo económico | |
| orçamento comunitário | |
| país-membro | |
| finanças públicas | |
| pacto de estabilidade | |
| União Económica e Monetária | |
| países UE | |
| política fiscal | |
| política orçamental | |
| produto interno bruto | |
| fiscalidade | |
| alargamento da União Europeia | |
| economia de mercado | |
| Países da Europa Central e Oriental | |
| Estados Unidos | |
| Estónia | |
| Eslovénia | |
| República Checa | |
| Chipre | |
| Letónia | |
| Lituânia | |
| Eslováquia | |
| Japão | |
| Portugal | |
| Alemanha | |
| Bélgica | |
| Dinamarca | |
| Grécia | |
| Espanha | |
| França | |
| Irlanda | |
| Itália | |
| Luxemburgo | |
| Países Baixos | |
| Áustria | |
| Finlândia | |
| Suécia | |
| Reino Unido | |
| ISBN | 978-92-79-14806-4 |
| Cota | CIEJD PP1606/6 ISSUE  |
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